“The completely ridiculous thinking and reactions to this virus might finish me off in healthcare,” she said. This family member sounded a lot like several others in my circle of family and friends.
It was March 9th and the COVID-19 count was at 704 in the United States. As of today, March 30th, the official count is at 163,788 with 3,141 dead and rising. Why did so many people ignore the warnings and not take this virus seriously?
I think it’s strange that the term “viral” is widely used today, yet few people comprehend its meaning and impact during an actual pandemic. The doubters have been very resistant to preventative actions. I heard many arguments about how small the numbers were and how many the flu kills. It became apparent to me that many people ignored this disease early on because they don’t understand math.
In many of my discussions with others on this topic, I observed a lack of understanding of compound growth. Those of us in the investment business should understand the concept of compound growth. Professional investors understand that keeping money and its earnings in-play so it can earn more money over an extended period of time creates a dramatic effect. Growth like this is deceptive because compounding money seems insignificant early in the process when earnings are small and seemingly slow. However, when money compounds over an extended time period, the momentum of compounding is nearly unstoppable.
Compounding money is analogous to the spread of COVID-19. Most people think they understand money, so I used this analogy in my discussions with doubters. The analogy kept them engaged long enough to discuss the exponential growth warnings coming from experts on the virus. That engagement gave me an opportunity to visually demonstrate compound growth of money and the COVID-19 virus. I found this to be an effective way to influence people at a very early stage of the outbreak.
Unfortunately, most people can’t visualize the effects of compounding and too many remained skeptical for way too long. Since time is an essential element to compounding, the prolonged skepticism and recklessness worsened the problem. As with money, delaying the necessary actions for impacting the virus can have a massively negative effect in the end.
The only ridiculous thinking and reactions we are seeing in the COVID-19 pandemic are from those who don’t comprehend the numbers. This is just math and most people are lousy at it.
